The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction | 
| Author: David Orrell
Publisher: Basic Books
Category: Book
List Price: $18.95
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Avg. Customer Rating:  10 reviews
Sales Rank: 401985
Media: Paperback
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 464
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.3
Dimensions (in): 8.6 x 5.4 x 1.3
ISBN: 1568583699
Dewey Decimal Number: 003.209
EAN: 9781568583693
ASIN: 1568583699
Publication Date: February 25, 2008
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Product Description
For centuries, scientists have strived to predict the future. But to what extent have they succeeded? Can past events-Hurricane Katrina, the Internet stock bubble, the SARS outbreak-help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever really be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In The Future of Everything, David Orrell looks back at the history of forecasting, from the time of the oracle at Delphi to the rise of astrology to the advent of the TV weather report, showing us how scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future. How can today’s scientists claim to anticipate future weather events when even thee-day forecasts prove a serious challenge? How can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?
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| Customer Reviews: Read 5 more reviews...
 Distrust is my reaction April 27, 2008
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
We have here a young man/author who thinks he knows more than he really does.
And he's done a lot of work to get to this state of ignorance, too.
I have a better book Forecasting on your microcomputer
where the fellow is more honest about methods and maybe not as knowledgeable about chaos and complexity, but he at least knows about the Russian Kondratieff and his long wave cycles.
There seems to be a certain dishonesty in a weather scientist
who tries to throw cold water on global warming predictions as
this fellow does. He looks at a sigmoid and sees a saturation curve
and I see a possible bifurcation ( figure 7.1, page 282).
Most predictions are that we will have real trouble in the next
decade and will probably falter as a culture/ civilization by 2020.
I really hope the author got paid well for this book and invests it well
in survival...
Most honest chaos scientist are afraid of what the future
their equations seem to predict
and are not hesitant to make that the clear statement.
 Great Book April 10, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
A book that everyone should read. The paperback is finally out; so if cost is a factor you can still read it. There may be more math than most would like but there is an attempt to keep it to the minimum with notes for those who want the details. If your are worried about global warming, do investing, or wonder about your DNA, then this book will be interesting.
Entertaining Science November 24, 2007
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book makes exceptional reading for a young scientist-to-be, or for an adult with a broad range of interests. Orrell's writing is light and enjoyable while still presenting an accurate history of philosophy, mathematics, and science. For me, the book provoked a great deal of thought, leaving me feeling like I could have a much greater interest in science and math than I would have thought. Stories of philosophers, mathematicians and scientists make for great reading when combined with Orrell's off-hand remarks and fluid writing style. Some of his enjoyable off-sides will age quickly--relating his historical tales to current times with references to Microsoft and George W. Bush for example. [I predict that these will become dated sooner rather than later. ;)] However, these slight flaws do not hinder Orrell's achievement of a delightful and easy-to-read look at matters that normally would seem a daunting study. If you have enjoyed books like Metamagical Themas, you will love this book!
Excellent! A must-read for those with a genuine scientific interest in Global Warming September 11, 2007
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
The book in general is easy to read, but some sections require some basic knowledge in math, economics and biology, though you may skip the excessively technical paragraphs, jump to the end of argument and still understand the general idea. The first three chapters present a very good summary of the history, philosophy and development of science, starting with the Greeks. A real crash course for those not familiar with these subjects and a necessary background to better understand the main topics being discussed in the book: The science of prediction in the fields of climate, health, and economics, and what I consider a very objective critic of simulation models and other techniques used for predictions on these fields. The book includes technical appendices, notes, a glossary and a full bibliography, so you can do follow-up or check the facts by yourself.
The explanation on Chapter 3 on the subject of complex systems is short but outstanding, allowing the layman to understand the basics without the confusion of the math involved. This explanation is fundamental for understanding the limitations of the science of prediction in non-linear systems, such as climate and economics, particularly because it makes clear that these models are not based simple on mathematical relationships reflecting cause-and-effect explanations, like Newton's laws. In astronomy you can calculate where the moon is going to be tomorrow at 5 am, this book makes crystal clear that complex systems are not like that, they are incomputable. And even if existing models can be twisted to fit past data, they cannot predict the future, as it is the case with many models in Economics and the climate simulation models supporting the consensus theory of Global Warming. It is well known that economists have developed models that can explain past external shocks, recessions, commodity booms, Dutch Disease, etc, so they understand conceptually what happened then, but they not predict the future, because neither the economy nor the climate are constrained to follow past behavior. The conditions of the initial variables are not the same, history does not repeat. Technically speaking, positive and negative feedbacks, and multiple feedbacks between the variable result in the inherent unpredictability of complex systems. For example, all 18 models used by the UN's IPCC 2007 Report cannot account for the clouds feedbacks, which may result in much lower temperatures than predicted or much higher (look for in the web for Chapter 8 of the UN's Climate Report, to check by yourself this and other important simulation limitations). As Mr. Orrell explained after showing how badly the OECD predicted GDP growth for the G7 countries from 1986 to 1998, "...Consensus between an ensemble of different models is no guarantor of accuracy: economic models agree with one another far more often than they do with the real economy" (pp 243). This statement is valid for climate models too.
Particularly Chapter 6, on economic predictions, is very interesting, but I will only comment on climate predictions, because so much is being discussed in the media and echoed by famous politicians and even Nobel laureates, with total disregard of basic scientific principles, and an absolute absence of scientific criticism or critical rationalism, as Karl Popper called it. Chapter 4, on climate forecast or prediction, begins with a brief but comprehensive summary of the history of meteorology and climate forecasting, which is important to understand the limitations of modern long-term predictions. As remembered to us by Mr. Orrell, Copernicus and Darwin hold publication of their works because they were afraid of the consequences, since their theories were against the scientific consensus of their times. Unfortunately, most of the environmental movement is blocking any serious discussion of the science behind the theory explaining the causes of Global Warming (the incomplete science has to do with the cause and effect relationship, not with the indisputable fact that most of the world is getting warm), which is based mainly on climate simulation models and assumptions about the state of affairs of the world for the next 100 years. And if you dare to contradict them, you become a heretic, since most environmentalists are acting as if defending a dogma. Not to mention that science must be politically neutral, as quite rightly cited by Mr. Orrell (pp. 107).
Since I do not want to spoil the contents of the book, let me just say that this book is a welcomed light of hope in the middle of the media and political frenzy regarding the real causes of Global Warming. We should be doing real science instead of politicizing science, and as Mr. Orrell recommends at the end of the book, "Apollo's arrow cannot fly to the future or protect us from plague, but it may serve as a compass, point out dangers, and help us navigate an unpredictable world", of course this is possible, if climate scientist stop playing politics and doing the science as they should, objectively and apolitically. Finally, someone has the courage to clearly explain what's wrong with the science behind the consensus theory explaining the Global Warming, as well as in other scientific and social fields.
The final chapter, "Consulting the Cristal Ball" is a must reading. Mr. Orrell presents quite a collection of ideas, scenarios, predictions, and concerns regarding how things will look in the year 2100, together with a box with some great predictions from the past. Just try to image how anyone would have made a reliable prediction of today in the year 1900 (such as cars, airplanes, television, CDs, iPods, computers, atomic bombs, you name it).
If you are serious about understanding the science behind Global Warming, this book is a must. Read it and as previously mentioned, it is worthwhile to search the web for the IPCC 2007 Report, Chapter 8, which presents the evaluation of the simulation models used by the U.N. and their present limitations. You will see that Mr. Orrell is right on the money, there are plenty of positive and negative feedbacks that these models can not replicate and other "anomalies" pending sound explanation. A highly recommended reading for follow-up is Marcel Leroux's "Global Warming - Myth or Reality?: The Erring Ways of Climatology" (too bad this is an expensive book!). We are in need of good old objective science.
Finally, after reading this book it becomes clear that climate simulation models lack any real explanatory power and are incapable to make any reliable predictions, so it seems appropriate to close with a quotation from the best known (Nobel Prize) advocate of the manmade GW based on climate simulation models:
"I have learned that, beyond death and taxes, there is at least one absolutely indisputable fact. Not only does human-caused global warming exist, but it is also growing more and more dangerous, and at a pace that has now made it a planetary emergency". Al Gore, "An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It", 2006.
A book that makes as much sense as it is easy to read -- can't get much better than that August 11, 2007
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
David Orrell tackles a hard subject that matters a lot -- the science of prediction.
Unfortunately, as Orrell tells us, where accurate prediction would help the most (say, with climate change and the stock market), there is more art to prediction than science. The billions spent on developing climate models do not help us predict the climatic future. No one has come up with any better global warming predictions than Svante Arrhenius made in 1896.
Orrell argues that we should see the world feelingly, rather than be blinded by our mental models. We need to know that we do not know. Grasping for illusory knowledge by over-modelling our environment is part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Orrell does not argue against mathematical models. They help us understand complex systems. In fact, we need a model to understand a complex system. While models do not let us predict the future with certainty, if at all, they do help us understand what is happening now. And that makes models indispensable.
Where does Orrell come out on climate change? He thinks we should have fewer children, pollute less, and tread more lightly on the earth. But not because of what any model says. Because of what Orrell feels. As he says, life is not a predictable machine. Life is a surprise.
Some other reviewers found parts of the book hard to read. I did not. For me, this book was a pleasure to read from start to finish. A fairly informal tone. Very thoughtful. Great examples (for example, "if Bill Gates attends a baseball game at Safeco Field in Seattle, the average net worth of those also in attendance increases by a factor of four"). And a pulling together of facts and theories not just from mathematics, but from a broad range of human thought.
(I must admit, though, that my enjoyment of the entire book may come from another reason than just my ability to comprehend more difficult passages than most readers. My guilty secret? I skip over the hard parts. I learned to do that in law school.)
Another good book in a similar vein is The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, by William Sherden. Its take on the subject is less the science and more the popular culture. Some may like that approach better. (Although that book, published in 1998, is a little dated.)
With my interest in peak oil and climate change, this book helped me greatly. Even those without that interest will, I think, enjoy David Orrell's book. It's good. Very good.
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