The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel | 
| Authors: Stephen Leeb, Glen Strathy
Publisher: Business Plus
Category: Book
List Price: $16.99
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Avg. Customer Rating:  70 reviews
Sales Rank: 952
Media: Paperback
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 224
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.6
Dimensions (in): 8.9 x 5.9 x 0.7
ISBN: 0446699004
Dewey Decimal Number: 330.900112
EAN: 9780446699006
ASIN: 0446699004
Publication Date: February 21, 2007
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Product Description
Stephen Leeb shows how hard times can be a boon for smart investors. As the world faces an energy crisis of unprecedented scope, renowed economist Stephen Leeb shows how surging oil prices will contribute to an economic collapse. With meticulous research and analysis, Leeb shows that due to strong competition from India and China, prices could soon double, a cost for which most countries and investors are ill-prepared. Now, in this groundbreaking book, Leeb not only shows how this crisis will affect consumers, but how savvy investing can turn these dire times into financial gain.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 65 more reviews...
Collapsing Now? June 16, 2008
They were calling Stephen Leeb 'the $100 a barrel man' when he first predicted this phenomena a few short years ago. Now he's looking at $200 and the mainstream media oil and finance pundits are slowly catching up with him. He is one of a number of writers who are warning that we are now in for an increasingly difficult times economically and that there are ways to benefit from the downturn. He is scathing of Wall Street and associated group think and warns against the herd instinct.
Leeb gives very clear advice on where to place one's investments and these include: gold related stocks and bullion; oil service companies. He recommends 'Chindia' which is the name he gives to the fast growing markets of China and India, targeting specific multinationals which are moving into these markets with products and experience which will make them successful.
This is not just a book on finance and oil though. His frame of reference is much wider drawing, as he does, on the work of two writers who have described what happens when civilizations fall apart. This is the context is which the book is written: the work of Jared Diamond in 'Collapse' and Jo Tainter in 'The Collapse of Complex Societies'. Mr. Leeb is convinced that the worst may be about to happened to our civilization. He gives good advice on how to deal with that and with scenarios of lesser magnitude. I found it most useful.
 starts strong, then falters April 24, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
"The Coming Economic Collapse" starts with a fairly concise review of the coming decline in availability of fossil fuels. The author, Stephen Leeb, summarizes the inevitable stresses in society that will occur when we no longer have cheap energy. This summary gives a much needed warning about how unpleasant life may become if we pursue our current fuel-guzzling ways.
After a good start, though, the rest of the book falters dramatically. The author spends countless pages giving advice about investing, as if investing will really make anything better in the big picture. He even sinks to the level of giving advice about specific stocks; advice like this is guaranteed to be out of date almost as soon as the book is published.
If you are interested in a good summary of peak oil and the coming economic crisis, the beginning of this book is quite good.
For better understanding, though, about what to do about the crisis, I would recommend the seris of books by Richard Heinberg, especially "The Oil Depletion Protocol."
I hesitiate to give it even 3 stars, February 16, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
but the book does contain information that is provocative and worth consideration.
The writing can best be described as "lazy." If I were reviewing just on the merits of the writing, this book would get 1 star. There is no excuse for anyone to put a literary product on the market that is as shabbily written as this one is.
For starters, Dr. Leeb switches voice four times throughout the book. He starts out with "I," then abruptly begins speaking as "we" on page 13, right in the middle of a chapter. Towards the end of the book, he goes back to "I," then again switches to "we."
The author has a penchant for revising history to fit his theories. For example, he portrays the 70's as just one economic step above the Great Depression, and even goes so far as to blame the homelessness of the 80's on the previous decade's financial turmoil (p 105).
Other examples:
The Iran-Iraq War ended in the "early 80's" (p. 84)
The Great Depression ended in 1944 (p. 110)
And listen to this one: "If the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 was a rain shower, then a bust of the housing boom today (written in 2006) would be a Category 5 hurricane. But that is exactly why we do not think it will happen." (p 179)
Nevertheless, Dr. Leeb puts forth some provacative concepts that are worthy of consideration, including the role of China and India (Chindia) in Peak Oil scenarios as well as "Groupthink," aka "herd mentality."
In addition, the author lays out a comprehensive investment plan that would, assumably, prosper during a protracted energy crisis. In my opinion, the investment suggestions should only be considered as a starting point for further research, rather than an iron-clad guarantee of success. The author's shoddy writing style casts a dubious shadow on all of his research and theories, and makes his investment suggestions suspect at best.
 Collapse This! February 9, 2008
12 out of 23 found this review helpful
If you accept Mr Leeb's apocalyptic Peak Oil scenario and the possibly imminent "collapse of civilization," then the investment advice he offers seems oxymoronic. All the money in the world won't save you when the barbarians are at the gates. (Well, unless maybe you had the foresight and wherewithal to buy a big spread in Paraguay.)
However, not to despair. Mr Leeb's argument is predicated on several faulty assumptions:
1) That oil production has peaked and therefore cannot keep pace with growing demand from developing nations.
2) That America can't survive a severe energy shortage.
3) That gold is an excellent defense against hyperinflation.
4) That $100/barrel oil will result in $10/gallon gasoline.
Obviously, the last assumption has already proven incorrect.
As to supply, oil has always been a commodity managed by the world's most powerful cartels. Production has been suppressed through both sins of commission (read, regime change) and sins of omission (obstructing development of major oil fields). There is no reason to suppose the present situation is any different from past "energy crises": here's a symptom of artificiality --- the price of oil has risen 900% since its most recent low in 1999, yet demand has only risen about 12%. Clearly there is a disconnect between demand and price.
The theory that available oil is limited to shrinking, finite pools of rendered dinosaur fat may well prove a myth fostered by oil producers to "explain" curtailed supply. Consider the possibility that petroleum --- formed as in the lab from hydrogen and methane under high pressure --- leaks out of the Earth, pushed by centrifugal force along crustal fissures? Is it merely coincidental that oil fields invariably flank major fault lines and fracture zones? How else to explain the self-replenishing field recently discovered in the Gulf of Mexico? It is quite possible that supply may prove to be far more abundant than Exxon would have you believe.
On the demand side, Mr Leeb posits inexorable growth -- yet it's easy to see how demand in the world's largest consuming economy, the US, could be reduced significantly, without hardship, if gasoline prices rose to "catastrophic" levels. There's no reason (except our customary extravagance) why US fleet economy couldn't be doubled, simply by our choosing to reduce the weight of our vehicles by a ton or two while decreasing the size of our engines by a couple of liters. No one really needs a 5000-pound SUV that does 0-60 in 7 seconds. Americans are supremely adaptable, if the price is right. One can even envision a future when privately owned, hybrid cars run on a network of rails; the combination of reduced friction, use of electricity while on the "net," and elimination of stop-and-go driving would result in massive fuel savings. For the present, ending our Middle Eastern military adventures would lead to lower energy prices as political tensions fell, along with Pentagon consumption. (The Air Force alone accounts for more than half the federal government's total energy use.)
Gold is deflationary, which is why it's a dangerous investment. Mr Leeb is correct in noting that inflation serves the gov't interest by reducing the true cost of debt. Plus, capitalism doesn't work when prices fall. Deflation must therefore be prevented at all costs, even to the point of hyperinflation if necessary. If there is widespread ownership of gold in response to high inflation, you can bet "jackbooted thugs" will be at the door to confiscate your bullion, just as in the 1930s. "Windfall" profits taxes will be enacted to stop speculation in precious metals instruments.
My investment advice? Put some of your money into the candidacies of those rare politicians who reject the conventional wisdom. The answer to America's energy dilemma lies in the political arena. We must somehow end the oil producers' control over Washington policymakers, freeing Americans to do what they do best: respond creatively and rationally to solve a very solvable problem.
Driver Beware -- How can you Diversify February 5, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This is the investor's guide to Peak Oil. If you are not both an investor and a subscriber to the theory behind Peak Oil, then this book will leave you a little lost. As it is, though, this book provides an answer to some questions that are otherwise never discussed elsewhere.
The premise is straightforward: the smart investor makes money by anticipating change and preparing for it. In this case, Leeb first sets out to explain why Peak Oil claims have some merit. He does not sound like Kunstler. He's got a cooler head, which I can really appreciate. He explains the problems at Ghawar as well as the visions of people like Matthew Simmons and Hubbert.
He is not just bucking the assumptions of geopolitics, though. He also takes Modern Portfolio Theory to task. That approach, which asserts that no investor can anticipate anything with regularity, advises people to seek the maximum expected risk-reward return. He goes over some of the famous geniuses who have rejected its assumptions - value investors like Buffett and the reflexivity theory of Soros.
Its not until the last chapter that he makes his specific investment suggestions. They are broad, but not just sectoral. He listed a few companies (FPL, the Canadian Oil Sands, Nabors) as well as sectors (gold, oil, alternative energy).
I read this book in about 10 hours. Its not meant to be that complicated. Maybe if the problems of the future weren't so visible over the horizon, it would need to be more eloquent. But it doesn't need to be, so its not.
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