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| Authors: Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Scott Burns
Publisher: The MIT Press
Category: Book
List Price: $18.95
Buy Used: $4.90
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New (30) Used (43) from $4.90
Avg. Customer Rating:  44 reviews
Sales Rank: 74909
Media: Paperback
Edition: New Ed
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 302
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.8
Dimensions (in): 8.9 x 5.9 x 0.8
ISBN: 0262612089
Dewey Decimal Number: 332.02400973
EAN: 9780262612081
ASIN: 0262612089
Publication Date: January 19, 2005
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Condition: Used book in very good condition. #B11012
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| Customer Reviews:
A Sobering Assessment December 5, 2006
6 out of 8 found this review helpful
Per Kotlkoff and Burns (who base their findings on Government projections), the present value of unfunded future liabilities for Social Security and Medicare is $45 trillion (some nine times the size of our "National debt"). The reasons: longer human life spans due to advances in medical science, retirement of the baby boomers, and the disconnect between the consumption of medical services and the responsibility for paying for them.
Drastic action would be required to close the gap now, e.g., (a) increase federal income taxes by 69%, (b) increase payroll taxes by 95%, or (c) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits by 45%. We could make even more drastic adjustments in a few years. Or, we could do nothing and let the U.S. economy go into a meltdown with double-digit inflation fueled by the Government printing money.
Our political leaders are trying to ignore the problem, and, as Kotlikoff and Burns explain, the fault is ours. "The last thing we want is Uncle Sam telling us to save now for a tidal wave of obligations when the baby boomers retire. So we make sure that doesn't happen. We hire [elect?] politicians who tell us what we want to hear."
The authors go on to present a plan for reform, but they don't expect their plan (or other reforms that could save the system) to be enacted. They end with advice as to how workers should attempt to look after themselves and their families if the politicians in Washington "miss this opportunity to save our ship of state."
One thing bothers me about the analysis. Accepting that the fiscal gap is every bit as bad as it is depicted, this problem was created by Government action. Why should we attempt to solve it by giving the Government even greater responsibilities, such as running the world's largest index fund, assessing the health risks of every senior in the country, deciding how much society needs to spend for health care, etc.? It might be more logical under the circumstances to move in the direction of less Government and let people make choices (such as how long should I work, what medical care do I and others in my family need, etc.) for themselves.
Even if the authors don't have all the answers, however, they have diagnosed the problem very well. "The Coming Generational Storm" is entertainingly written and refreshingly nonpartisan (lambasting both Republicans and Democrats with vigor). Don't miss it.
A retort to the complaints about this book November 27, 2006
12 out of 14 found this review helpful
The negative reviews of this book tend to note the following: we cannot predict the future and, yet, this book purports to predict what will happen in the future.
On the one hand, this is a valid criticism - it IS true that we cannot predict how things might change over the next few decades. If some changes occur, they may invalidate the predictions of this book. In fact, I would wager that this book ends up being wrong on a number of fronts.
However, one response to this criticism is that the best information that we have about the future is based on current trends. Absent information about unknown innovations, how could we do any better? Using information about current trends is exactly what this book does. Any alternative future is necessarily based on more tenuous predictions.
Moreover, the authors are very, very careful (and I cannot emphasize how careful they are) about the caveats associated with their predictions - they consistently note that no one can predict the future with certainty and that their predictions are based on the best available information.
They then go even further. They consider scenarios that may invalid their predictions such as technological change (i.e. productivity increases) and carefully argue that those changes would be implausible or, at the very least, insufficient to alter the basic gist of their message.
In the end, the authors try a great deal to innoculate themselves against the criticism regarding the uncertain future. They will almost certainly not be correct, and they concede this point throughout. But their predictions are based on more careful analysis than the knee-jerk response that "we cannot predict the future" which ends up being a vacuous criticism since it is not refutable.
What annoys me about this whole issue is that it is quite clear that we are facing a future crisis even if these guys are wrong about the details. And yet our politicians do not have the guts to face up to it. I think that we need a blue ribbon, non-partisan panel that includes serious people like Kotlikoff (who is a serious, well-regarded economist) to consider the issues and make recommendations. Most politicians either do not understand the issues or do not have the chutzpah to confront them. Something has to be done, and even if this book ends up being wrong, at least it's a call to action.
 Forewarned is forearmed October 11, 2006
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
This little volume puts the numbers behind Peterson's Running on Empty. If one wants further evidence of credibility see the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis "Review" July/August 2006 article "Is the United States Bankrupt" by the same author. One can argue the details but publication by the Fed should get ones attention.
A Worthy, Yet Overly Repetitive Read. September 4, 2006
13 out of 26 found this review helpful
The crux of the 250 pages of text here, not including notes and bibliography is this; the United States of America will soon be bankrupt. Thank you FDR for creating social programs that have become political vote-grabbing pawns and have grown into behemoth programs that we can no longer afford to maintain. THE COMING GENERATIONAL STORM: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT AMERICA'S ECONOMIC FUTURE, by Lawrence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, explains to us that America is already bankrupt but is effectively cooking the books to keep our bankruptcy status quiet.
The authors go on to diagram what actions individuals should do now to protect their personal economic futures. Strongly advocated here are Roth Ira's and 401K's, eliminating mortgage and accumulating gold.
I found the book to be excruciatingly repetitive. That's not to say I generally disagree with the authors' assessments, I'm just saying the information gleaned here could have been just as effectively presented in a 3 page magazine article.
I do like to give credit where it is due, and this book is very well researched. Kotlikoff and Burns no doubt put in the hours to construct this piece and support their claims with substantiated facts. They even present a possible cure, that being that we should mirror the Thatcher policies of the UK. I present a different solution; reduce government spending by eliminating pork projects that taxpayers cannot and should not be paying for. For example, a good place to start would be prison reform. Convicted criminals have no right to law libraries, cable television, etc. Taxpayers should not be paying for death row inmates to spend 20+ years tying up our judicial systems with appeals. And even executions, which cost thousands of taxpayer's dollars, should be reduced to the cost of single bullet.
It offers practical ideas for protecting our financial future July 29, 2006
I have read many books in this genre. Many are too hard to read for those who do not have an economic background. Some water it down so much that one wonders if it's just hype. This book has easy-to-understand examples, and it offers practical ideas on how to protect our financial future. I think it should be required reading for high school students!
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