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| Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd (UK)
Category: Book
Buy Collectible: $63.00
Used (2) Collectible (1) from $63.00
Avg. Customer Rating:  328 reviews
Sales Rank: 1873143
Format: Import
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.7
Dimensions (in): 9.3 x 6.2 x 1.4
ISBN: 0713999950
EAN: 9780713999952
ASIN: 0713999950
Publication Date: May 31, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Shipping: Expedited shipping available
Shipping: International shipping available
Condition: THE NEW HARDBACK BOOK! THE UNABRIDGED 1ST EDITION. RANDOM HOUSE, 2007. HARDBACK BOOK, DUST JACKET AND PAGES ARE IN FINE CONDITION, CLEAN AND TIGHT. RAPID SHIPPING WITH FREE TRACKING, GREAT PACKAGING. PRIORITY AIR MAIL. WV-GR
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| Customer Reviews:
 Insights and insults August 25, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Taleb's main point--that the world is far more random and unpredictable than almost anyone grasps--is well worth making. This, as he shows, is especially clear and crucial in human-dominated activities such as economics, politics and the social sciences.
I was particularly struck by a graph that appears three-quarters of the way through the book that shows that the ten largest one-day changes in the U.S. stock market account for half of the returns. This is a mind-blowing demonstration that anyone, including the Nobel-prize-winning economists Taleb reviles--who estimates risk under the assumption that the stock market follows the Gaussian bell-shaped curve is on extremely shaky ground.
Taleb's more general position, that in most human activities, "black swans"--events like 9/11 that are intrinsically unpredictable--make the most difference, is also an invaluable eye-opener.
After many pages of argument, I'm even willing to agree that whether we like it or not, we do live in chaotic, risky and unpredictable "Extemistan" rather than relatively tranquil "Mediocristan."
Unfortunately, the more I came to appreciate what Taleb has to say, the less I liked how he says it. He comes across as an angry, aggressive, in-your-face intellectual snob. I was tired of his tirades and gratuitous insults by page 7. They continue through to the last line of the book, where he, a "person of commerce" takes a last swipe at other persons of commerce.
Still, if you can get past his abrasive style, you can benefit, and maybe even profit from his sometimes brilliant insights.
 Black Swans In American Industries August 23, 2008
2 out of 4 found this review helpful
A very interesting concept and I believe, a very true phenomena that exists in every walk of life. As a corporate human resources director, black swans can bring disastrous results if proper planning is not in place. While most of my career has been mundane to say the least, the periods where I experienced `Extremistan' were the times when great change happened either in my career or within the organization I was employed by.
Teaching your managers and leaders about the concept of black swans will result in positive benefits for your organization that are invaluable. In fact, grasping the black swan theory may even save the organization from ultimate failure.
This may not be viewed by many as a management book. These people would be wrong. Combined with Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking and Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything a leader in the management world will be fortified with the tools needed to survive the trips to Extremistan. Michael L. Gooch, SPHR Author of Wingtips with Spurs
Good info, good ideas, but got bored and couldn't finish it... August 21, 2008
1 out of 3 found this review helpful
As far as I got, it all seemed to make sense. The bell-curve IS inadequate. Ok, that's fine. And there are some great examples. There are plenty of reviews here that will give you all the goodies.
But all in all I have to say that there was a lot of clutter. If you're going to buy this book READ THE PREFACE, everything just clicks better.
Still many things seem irrelevant, or perhaps the connection was not explained enough. Lots of repetition. My overall sense is that it could have been shorter and to the point.
Needless to say, I liked as far as I got. I just felt that I had enough information and that reading the rest would just be repeating the beginning. Still, I'm happy I bought it and got as far as I did. The insight is good, and useful. So if the subject interests you, give it a try and hopefully you'll make it ot the end.
 Disaster Planning for Black Swans August 18, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
I have found Mr. Taleb's book to be a very interesting and thought provoking read. As an experienced emergency management professional and instructor, I find it calls into question the whole process of risk and hazard analysis. While the book is certainly intellectually stimulating and should cause one to be very careful with planning assumptions, I question its value in any direct application. While looking in the rear view mirror we don't know how many Black Swan's were prevented by well conducted risk and hazard analyses based on historical occurrences. As Mr. Taleb points out, history has overlooked the successful interventions and un-occurred disasters.
 Nothing useful that anyone in a scientific field would benefit from August 16, 2008
2 out of 5 found this review helpful
Talebs point is painfully simple. For some reason he seems to think that it is very unique and it is almost laughable that he thinks people in academia are so near sighted as to not realize much of what he presents.
He fails to provide any new model for evaluating risk... It's obvious that we can't predict the future, yes markets could collapse if a nuke hit america... or some other "Black Swan" occurrence happened. But the fact is we can't really practically use any of these events to model risk.
One example I found to be pretty stupid was when he talked about the banking crisis (where South American countries all simultaneously defaulted on their loans) ... and implied that this meant that "bankers were not conservative". His basic vice is that many strategies produce very little volatility yet still contain chaotic possibility of an extremely large loss. Unfortunately he never offered a practical alternative to what conservative should be defined as. Humans have limited tools to evaluate risk, I think everyone realizes that our models aren't perfect (yet unfortunately Taleb seems to think that he is the only one that has had this insight). This pattern occurs throughout the book -- Taleb chastising people for wrongly evaluating future occurrences without offering any practical alternative.
I didn't buy a book simply be told that ... "well...humans aren't oracles they can't predict stuff...sometimes crazy stuff goes down... here are some examples... oh yeah and some advice: Be open minded"... which in essence is what this book wastes 400 pages doing.
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